Seasonal Predictions
Exploiting the experience gained in several European projects, the CMCC has developed a seasonal forecasting system based on the global coupled model CMCC-CM. The seasonal predictions are performed every month, producing a 9-member ensemble integrations conducted with the coupled model for the following 6 months. In the forecasting system currently in use (CMCC-SPS2), the atmospheric initial conditions are taken form the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-term Weather Forecasts) re-analyses ERA-interim, whereas the oceanic initial state is specified using the CMCC ocean analyses. The atmospheric initial state is then properly perturbed in order to generate the set of 9 different initial conditions needed for the ensemble integrations. References:
- Palmer T.N., Alessandri A., Andersen U., Cantelaube P., Davey M., Délécluse P., Deque M., Diez E., Doblas-Reyes F., Feddersen H., Graham R., Gualdi S., Guérémy J.-F., Hagedorn R., Hoshen M., Keenlyside N., Latif M., Lazar A., Maisonnave E., Marletto V., Morse A.P., Orfila B., Rogel P., Terres J.-M., Thomson M.C. Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER), 2004, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872, DOI: 10.21957/xmnlges6
- Alessandri A., Borrelli A., Masina S., Cherchi A., Gualdi S., Navarra A., Di Pietro P., Carril A. The INGV-CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: improved ocean initial conditions, 2010, Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 138, No. 7. 2930–2952
- Alessandri A., Borrelli A., Gualdi S., Scoccimarro E., Masina S. Tropical cyclone count forecasting using a dynamical Seasonal Prediction System: sensitivity to improved ocean initialization , 2011, Journal of Climate, 24, 2963-2982, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3585.1
Antonella Sanna - CLIVAP Division